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青年失业、国家破产?世界经济论坛发布各国经济风险排名

青年失业、国家破产?世界经济论坛发布各国经济风险排名

Katherine Dunn 2021年01月20日
这份报告追踪、展示的种种风险,让全世界的专家们夜不能寐。

1月19日,世界经济论坛(World Economic Forum)警告称,未来几年内,整个世界都会深受新冠疫情余波的影响——从理想幻灭的“迷惘年轻一代”,到长期性金融危机甚至是国家崩溃,一波波困境将接踵而至。

在一年一度的《全球风险报告》(Global Risks Report)中,世界经济论坛列出了这场全球性流行病或将带来的可怕余波,囊括了政治和社会动荡、不平等加剧等种种后果。这份报告追踪并展示的种种风险,让全世界的专家们夜不能寐。

每年的《全球风险报告》都不容易读懂。但是,2021年的新版本似乎为“未来的麻烦”设定了新的标准。

报告警告称:“新冠疫情的直接性代价非常严重,包括人的伤亡和经济两方面。疫情有可能使近年来世界在削减贫困和不平等方面取得的进展发生倒退,并进一步损害社会凝聚力和全球合作,况且后者在疫情到来之前就已经在逐步消退。”

根据受访者对于未来两三年、五六年,甚至十年内将反复出现的这些恼人事件的排名,这份报告列出了一系列的连锁反应。受访者表示,他们认为未来两年内,年轻人面临的风险将会很大,因为他们的成长期夹在了经济大衰退和全球性疫情之间。

他们还提出了对“数字不平等”影响的担心。居家办公、上学加剧了数字鸿沟,穷人、富人,穷国、富国进一步分野。与此同时,他们还担心社会凝聚力会遭到“普遍侵蚀”——世界经济论坛警告称,这可能会威胁到本就脆弱的社会体制,甚至全面动摇政治和经济体系的稳定性。此外,社会两极分化盛行,虚假信息“接连轰炸”,都将威胁到“依赖于疫苗接种工作全面铺开的全球性复苏”。

中长期的风险将会更深:据预测,未来三至五年内,全球金融将会陷入崩溃,出现资产泡沫破裂、物价起伏不定等等状况;而到2030年这段时期,将会出现全面的“生存危机”,包括国家崩溃、生物多样性大范围削弱等。

与此同时,两个老生常谈的主题也在持续出现:一个是气候变化及相关的环境影响——由于气候问题的可能性和预期性影响之大,它在去年和今年都占据了榜首之位;另一个则是各种形式的“数字混沌”,包括网络战争和IT基础设施故障等。

多年以来,世界经济论坛一直在警告全球性疫情的风险,认为全球疫情发生的可能性较低,但影响巨大,仅次于大规模杀伤性武器带来的影响。去年,当有关新冠病毒的消息初露苗头时,该报告就指出,抗击流行病的进展广泛受到了卫生系统不健全、疫苗研发犹豫迟疑和耐药性的影响。报告还非常具有预见性地补充说:“应对疫情,没有一个国家能真正做好充分准备。”

但是,全球疫情的可能性仍然被认为相当遥远——甚至没有进入前十位。

当然,这本身就是一个教训。

“我们清楚,对政府、企业和其他利益相关者来说,应对这些长期风险是多么困难。但我们也从中得到教训,所有人都应该认识到,忽视风险并不会降低风险发生的可能性。”世界经济论坛的董事总经理萨迪亚•扎西迪说。(钜富中国网)

编译:杨二一

1月19日,世界经济论坛(World Economic Forum)警告称,未来几年内,整个世界都会深受新冠疫情余波的影响——从理想幻灭的“迷惘年轻一代”,到长期性金融危机甚至是国家崩溃,一波波困境将接踵而至。

在一年一度的《全球风险报告》(Global Risks Report)中,世界经济论坛列出了这场全球性流行病或将带来的可怕余波,囊括了政治和社会动荡、不平等加剧等种种后果。这份报告追踪并展示的种种风险,让全世界的专家们夜不能寐。

每年的《全球风险报告》都不容易读懂。但是,2021年的新版本似乎为“未来的麻烦”设定了新的标准。

报告警告称:“新冠疫情的直接性代价非常严重,包括人的伤亡和经济两方面。疫情有可能使近年来世界在削减贫困和不平等方面取得的进展发生倒退,并进一步损害社会凝聚力和全球合作,况且后者在疫情到来之前就已经在逐步消退。”

根据受访者对于未来两三年、五六年,甚至十年内将反复出现的这些恼人事件的排名,这份报告列出了一系列的连锁反应。受访者表示,他们认为未来两年内,年轻人面临的风险将会很大,因为他们的成长期夹在了经济大衰退和全球性疫情之间。

他们还提出了对“数字不平等”影响的担心。居家办公、上学加剧了数字鸿沟,穷人、富人,穷国、富国进一步分野。与此同时,他们还担心社会凝聚力会遭到“普遍侵蚀”——世界经济论坛警告称,这可能会威胁到本就脆弱的社会体制,甚至全面动摇政治和经济体系的稳定性。此外,社会两极分化盛行,虚假信息“接连轰炸”,都将威胁到“依赖于疫苗接种工作全面铺开的全球性复苏”。

中长期的风险将会更深:据预测,未来三至五年内,全球金融将会陷入崩溃,出现资产泡沫破裂、物价起伏不定等等状况;而到2030年这段时期,将会出现全面的“生存危机”,包括国家崩溃、生物多样性大范围削弱等。

与此同时,两个老生常谈的主题也在持续出现:一个是气候变化及相关的环境影响——由于气候问题的可能性和预期性影响之大,它在去年和今年都占据了榜首之位;另一个则是各种形式的“数字混沌”,包括网络战争和IT基础设施故障等。

多年以来,世界经济论坛一直在警告全球性疫情的风险,认为全球疫情发生的可能性较低,但影响巨大,仅次于大规模杀伤性武器带来的影响。去年,当有关新冠病毒的消息初露苗头时,该报告就指出,抗击流行病的进展广泛受到了卫生系统不健全、疫苗研发犹豫迟疑和耐药性的影响。报告还非常具有预见性地补充说:“应对疫情,没有一个国家能真正做好充分准备。”

但是,全球疫情的可能性仍然被认为相当遥远——甚至没有进入前十位。

当然,这本身就是一个教训。

“我们清楚,对政府、企业和其他利益相关者来说,应对这些长期风险是多么困难。但我们也从中得到教训,所有人都应该认识到,忽视风险并不会降低风险发生的可能性。”世界经济论坛的董事总经理萨迪亚•扎西迪说。(钜富中国网)

编译:杨二一

From a “lost generation” of disillusioned young people, to long-term financial crisis and even state collapse, the world could be feeling the fallout of the COVID-19 crisis for years to come, the World Economic Forum warned on January 19.

In its annual Global Risks Report, which tracks the top risks keeping global experts up at night, WEF laid out the potentially dire consequences of the global pandemic, including political and social upheaval and further inequality.

Each year, the report makes for tough reading. But the 2021 version seems to set a new bar for trouble ahead.

“The immediate human and economic costs of COVID-19 are severe,” the report warned. “They threaten to scale back years of progress on reducing global poverty and inequality and further damage social cohesion and global cooperation, which were already weakening before the virus struck.”

In a ranking based on when respondents predict these troubling events will surface—in the next two years, in three to five years, and in up to 10 years—the report set out a cascade of grim knock-on effects. In the next two years, respondents said, they see a big risk for young people who have spent their formative years sandwiched between the Great Recession and the pandemic.

They were also concerned about the effects of “digital inequality,” as working and schooling from home has exacerbated enormous divides between the world’s digital haves and have-nots. Those hazards came alongside fears of general “social cohesion erosion,” which the WEF warned could threaten fragile institutions or even destabilize political and economic systems entirely. That comes just as societies are rife with polarization and “bombarded” with misinformation, which could “threaten a global recovery that hinges on widespread vaccination.”

The risks in the medium and long term cut deeper: The three-to-five year bracket was marked by predictions of global financial collapse, from the bursting of asset bubbles to price instability, while the period up to 2030 was defined by predictions for full existential crises, including the prospect of collapsed states and mass biodiversity loss.

Meanwhile, two long-running themes also continued to loom: climate change and the related environmental fallout—which dominates the top of the rankings in terms of both likelihood and expected impact, as it did in 2020—and various forms of digital chaos, including cyberwar and IT infrastructure failure.

The WEF had warned for years of the risk of a pandemic, judging it a lower-likelihood—but high-impact—event only surpassed by a disaster involving weapons of mass destruction. Last year, as news of the virus was only beginning to gain steam, the report noted that progress against pandemics generally was being undermined by poor health systems, vaccine hesitancy, and drug resistance, and added—presciently—that “no country is fully prepared to handle an epidemic or pandemic.”

But the prospect of a pandemic was still seen as somewhat distant—it didn’t even make the top 10.

Surely, that’s a lesson in itself.

“We know how difficult it is for governments, business, and other stakeholders to address such long-term risks,” said Saadia Zahidi, managing director at the World Economic Forum. “But the lesson here is for all of us to recognize that ignoring them doesn’t make them less likely to happen.”

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