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特斯拉发布四季度财报:靠卖碳排放积分赚了大钱,但核心业务仍在亏损

特斯拉发布四季度财报:靠卖碳排放积分赚了大钱,但核心业务仍在亏损

Shawn Tully 2021年01月29日
如果埃隆·马斯克不能让特斯拉公司快速增加利润,其投资者、拥护者们可能很快就会失去信心。

虽然埃隆·马斯克刚刚说过,特斯拉的估值接近万亿美元,但其第四季度财报数据却很“打脸”。特斯拉发布的第四季度财报显示,如果没有碳排放交易支撑,光靠卖车、电池这些核心业务,特斯拉目前仍然在亏损。简而言之,马斯克并没有展示出足够实现公司目标的力量。如果他不能踩足利润的油门,让特斯拉公司像行将推出的Model S Plaid那样加速行驶,其投资者、拥护者们可能很快就会失去信心。

在1月28日的特斯拉收益电话会议上,首席执行官马斯克对批评人士和做空者多年来所持的“电动汽车巨头被严重高估”观点表示反驳。本周早些时候,特斯拉的市值徘徊在8800亿美元左右。在开幕致辞中,马斯克给出了“证明”特斯拉市值的“粗略数字”——他预计,常规车型(如Model S、3、X、Y系列)和热门产品的销售收入约为500亿美元至600亿美元,而向全自动驾驶汽车(FSD)的转变将让公司未来的销售收入“再翻一番”,多出来的500多亿美元将“全部计入毛利率”。他总结道:“如果乘以20倍,那就是1万亿美元。仅从汽车和全自动驾驶功能来看,就足以证明(今天的)估值是合理的。”

但是,特斯拉在2020年第四季度的业绩并没有显示出达到市值1万亿美元以上所需要的进展速度,甚至连现在的8000亿美元都略显乏力。原因在于,特斯拉并没有将强劲增长的营收转化为利润。相反,公司利用竞争车企避开加州、欧盟等地区罚款的需求,依赖于向竞争车企出售碳排放配额以盈利。

特斯拉宣布,2020年第四季度,按照公认会计准则计算的税前收入为11.54亿美元。与2019年同期6.65亿美元的亏损相比,这似乎是一个很大的进步。

但倘若深入研究这些数字,不难发现这些“进步”的背后,是兜售碳排放配额的成果。2020年,碳排放配额交易为特斯拉提供了共计15.8亿美元的收入(几乎可以视为全部税前利润),而2019年这一数字是5.94亿美元,一年内增翻了三倍之多。因此,如果没有这些碳排放收入,特斯拉基础的汽车和电池业务的利润将从净亏损12.59亿美元上升至净亏损4.26亿美元——这样来看,特斯拉并没有在第四季度扭亏为盈。如果没有竞争车企购买碳排放配额,特斯拉将出现2200万美元的税前亏损。

特斯拉售卖碳排放配额达到巨额营收,这样的情形还能够持续多久?目前尚不可知。在财报电话会议上,特斯拉的首席财务官扎克·柯克霍恩解释道:“碳排放的销售额极难预测。2020年的销售额就超过了我们的预期。”

他强调:“销售额可能会在几个季度内保持强劲,但也可能不会。”据柯克霍恩预计,过渡期结束之后,“就长期来看,碳排放销售将不再是我们业务的主要组成部分”。

特斯拉翻了近三倍的营收,源于其与车企菲亚特克莱斯勒(Fiat Chrysler)在欧洲达成的一项协议。从去年开始,欧盟将欧洲汽车制造商生产的每辆车的排放要求降低了30%左右(以每辆车的平均年销售量计算)。但同时,欧盟允许超过这一界线的车企与竞争车企合作,形成“排放池”,每辆车的排放低于界线将获得额外的积分。而作为一家纯电动汽车企业,特斯拉拥有大量积分。车企之间可以互相买卖积分,特斯拉因此得以大量盈利。据报道,特斯拉与菲亚特克莱斯勒的这一合作每年带来约12亿美元的收入,占到2020年特斯拉总收入的大部分。

但特斯拉从菲亚特克莱斯勒拿到的这笔意外之财很快就会消退,尽管具体时间还未可知。今年1月,菲亚特克莱斯勒与法国标志雪铁龙集团(Group PSA)合并,成立了Stellantis。作为主要电动汽车制造商之一,标志雪铁龙已经符合欧盟的新法规。菲亚特也早在结盟之前就宣布,其进军电动汽车领域的举措将在2021年大幅减少对碳排放配额的需求,并在2022年使其独立。标致雪铁龙向来专注于电气化传动系统和平台,这次合并也加速了菲亚特车型向电动汽车的转变。

从菲亚特克莱斯勒损失的收入,特斯拉似乎将从本田(Honda)那里收回,后者最近也加入了“排放池”行列。据报道,新协议要求本田每年向特斯拉支付约1亿美元。

如果拜登政府增加奥巴马-拜登领导下的碳排放积分,特斯拉可能会得到提振。特朗普政府限制了积分的发放,但欧盟积分激增抵消了来自美国的不利影响,让特斯拉的碳排放总销售额翻了一番,并在今年实现了盈利。倘若美国联邦碳排放积分增加,销售额将有所提振,但特斯拉仍然预计,在未来几个季度之后,碳排放销售将不会是其营收大头。

在不久的将来,特斯拉需要做到它现在没有做的事情:靠汽车和电池来盈利。利润的数值必须足够向投资者证明,特斯拉的确是一个奇迹,它从0码加速到60码的速度比历史上任何一辆车都要快。(钜富中国网)

编译:杨二一

虽然埃隆·马斯克刚刚说过,特斯拉的估值接近万亿美元,但其第四季度财报数据却很“打脸”。特斯拉发布的第四季度财报显示,如果没有碳排放交易支撑,光靠卖车、电池这些核心业务,特斯拉目前仍然在亏损。简而言之,马斯克并没有展示出足够实现公司目标的力量。如果他不能踩足利润的油门,让特斯拉公司像行将推出的Model S Plaid那样加速行驶,其投资者、拥护者们可能很快就会失去信心。

在1月28日的特斯拉收益电话会议上,首席执行官马斯克对批评人士和做空者多年来所持的“电动汽车巨头被严重高估”观点表示反驳。本周早些时候,特斯拉的市值徘徊在8800亿美元左右。在开幕致辞中,马斯克给出了“证明”特斯拉市值的“粗略数字”——他预计,常规车型(如Model S、3、X、Y系列)和热门产品的销售收入约为500亿美元至600亿美元,而向全自动驾驶汽车(FSD)的转变将让公司未来的销售收入“再翻一番”,多出来的500多亿美元将“全部计入毛利率”。他总结道:“如果乘以20倍,那就是1万亿美元。仅从汽车和全自动驾驶功能来看,就足以证明(今天的)估值是合理的。”

但是,特斯拉在2020年第四季度的业绩并没有显示出达到市值1万亿美元以上所需要的进展速度,甚至连现在的8000亿美元都略显乏力。原因在于,特斯拉并没有将强劲增长的营收转化为利润。相反,公司利用竞争车企避开加州、欧盟等地区罚款的需求,依赖于向竞争车企出售碳排放配额以盈利。

特斯拉宣布,2020年第四季度,按照公认会计准则计算的税前收入为11.54亿美元。与2019年同期6.65亿美元的亏损相比,这似乎是一个很大的进步。

但倘若深入研究这些数字,不难发现这些“进步”的背后,是兜售碳排放配额的成果。2020年,碳排放配额交易为特斯拉提供了共计15.8亿美元的收入(几乎可以视为全部税前利润),而2019年这一数字是5.94亿美元,一年内增翻了三倍之多。因此,如果没有这些碳排放收入,特斯拉基础的汽车和电池业务的利润将从净亏损12.59亿美元上升至净亏损4.26亿美元——这样来看,特斯拉并没有在第四季度扭亏为盈。如果没有竞争车企购买碳排放配额,特斯拉将出现2200万美元的税前亏损。

特斯拉售卖碳排放配额达到巨额营收,这样的情形还能够持续多久?目前尚不可知。在财报电话会议上,特斯拉的首席财务官扎克·柯克霍恩解释道:“碳排放的销售额极难预测。2020年的销售额就超过了我们的预期。”

他强调:“销售额可能会在几个季度内保持强劲,但也可能不会。”据柯克霍恩预计,过渡期结束之后,“就长期来看,碳排放销售将不再是我们业务的主要组成部分”。

特斯拉翻了近三倍的营收,源于其与车企菲亚特克莱斯勒(Fiat Chrysler)在欧洲达成的一项协议。从去年开始,欧盟将欧洲汽车制造商生产的每辆车的排放要求降低了30%左右(以每辆车的平均年销售量计算)。但同时,欧盟允许超过这一界线的车企与竞争车企合作,形成“排放池”,每辆车的排放低于界线将获得额外的积分。而作为一家纯电动汽车企业,特斯拉拥有大量积分。车企之间可以互相买卖积分,特斯拉因此得以大量盈利。据报道,特斯拉与菲亚特克莱斯勒的这一合作每年带来约12亿美元的收入,占到2020年特斯拉总收入的大部分。

但特斯拉从菲亚特克莱斯勒拿到的这笔意外之财很快就会消退,尽管具体时间还未可知。今年1月,菲亚特克莱斯勒与法国标志雪铁龙集团(Group PSA)合并,成立了Stellantis。作为主要电动汽车制造商之一,标志雪铁龙已经符合欧盟的新法规。菲亚特也早在结盟之前就宣布,其进军电动汽车领域的举措将在2021年大幅减少对碳排放配额的需求,并在2022年使其独立。标致雪铁龙向来专注于电气化传动系统和平台,这次合并也加速了菲亚特车型向电动汽车的转变。

从菲亚特克莱斯勒损失的收入,特斯拉似乎将从本田(Honda)那里收回,后者最近也加入了“排放池”行列。据报道,新协议要求本田每年向特斯拉支付约1亿美元。

如果拜登政府增加奥巴马-拜登领导下的碳排放积分,特斯拉可能会得到提振。特朗普政府限制了积分的发放,但欧盟积分激增抵消了来自美国的不利影响,让特斯拉的碳排放总销售额翻了一番,并在今年实现了盈利。倘若美国联邦碳排放积分增加,销售额将有所提振,但特斯拉仍然预计,在未来几个季度之后,碳排放销售将不会是其营收大头。

在不久的将来,特斯拉需要做到它现在没有做的事情:靠汽车和电池来盈利。利润的数值必须足够向投资者证明,特斯拉的确是一个奇迹,它从0码加速到60码的速度比历史上任何一辆车都要快。(钜富中国网)

编译:杨二一

Elon Musk just claimed that, no kidding, Tesla's really worth its nearly-trillion dollar valuation. His Q4 earnings report, however, shows that right now, Tesla would still be booking losses if it weren't for a boom in a profit center far removed from its core of cars and batteries: Selling CO2 regulatory credits. Put simply, Musk's not showing the firepower to get there. If he doesn't hit the accelerator on profits, and get Tesla speeding like the forthcoming Model S Plaid that he lauded as the first commercial zero-to-sixty speedster ever, his investor/fans could soon lose faith.

On Tesla's earnings call after the bell on January 28, CEO Musk countered critics and short-sellers who've been claiming and wagering for years that his electric-vehicle colossus is wildly overvalued. In his opening remarks, Musk gave his "back of the envelope math for justifying" Tesla's market cap, hovering around $880 billion the earlier in the week. Musk predicted that the shift to Full Self-Driving vehicles (FSD) would produce "a doubling again" of future revenues from the $50 to $60 billion he's projecting from selling his regular lineup of models S, 3, X, Y, and hits to come, and that the extra $50-billion plus would be "all gross margin." "Put on 20 multiple," he concluded, "and that's $1 trillion, which "justifies [today's] valuation just from cars and FSD."

The fourth quarter results, however, aren't showing anything like the pace of progress needed to get to $1 trillion-plus, or even sustain Tesla's current market cap of well over $800 billion. The reason: Tesla isn't turning generally robustly-rising revenues into profits. Instead, it's relying on those sales of regulatory credits to competitors that need them to avoid fines in jurisdictions such as California and the E.U.

In Q4, Tesla announced that for the year, it posted pre-tax GAAP income of $1.154 billion, in what looks like a big improvement from last year's deficit of $665 million.

Dig into the numbers, however, and you'll find that all of that "progress" and then some comes from hawking the credits. In 2020, that line item furnished $1.58 billion in revenues, which we can reasonably assume is virtually all pre-tax profit. That's almost triple the $594 million total from CO2 sales 2019. Hence, without the income from those credits, the profits from Tesla's basic car and battery businesses would have advanced from a negative $1.259 billion to a still loss-making $426 million. Tesla didn't turn the corner in Q4: It would have posted a pre-tax deficit of $22 million sans the bounty from rivals buying its credits.

It's uncertain how long how Tesla will be pocketing the big CO2 sales that this year, accounted for its much ballyhooed swing from loss to profit. On the earnings call, CFO Zach Kirkhorn explained that "Regulatory sales are an extremely difficult area to forecast. 2020 sales were higher than our expectations."

He went on to stress that "It's possible for a handful of quarters that they remain strong, and possibly not." But Kirkhorn foresees that after that interim period, regulatory sales "in the long-term will not be a material part of our business."

The almost three-fold jump in those revenues sprung mainly from a deal Tesla forged with in Europe with Fiat Chrysler. Starting last year, the E.U. lowered the emissions requirements per car, averaged across the yearly number sold, for European automakers by around 30%. But it also allowed manufacturers that are over-the-limit to form "pools" with competitors that win extra credits for emissions-per-auto that are under the threshold. So as an all-EV enterprise, Tesla is loaded with those credits. Its pooling with Fiat Chrysler is reportedly producing around $1.2 billion a year in regulatory revenue, accounting for the bulk of Tesla's total in 2020.

But the Fiat Chrysler windfall will fade soon, though the timetable is uncertain. In January, it merged with Group PSA of France to form Stellantis. PSA as a major EV manufacturer was already in compliance with the new E.U. regs. Well before its union with PSA, Fiat Chrysler had announced that its own move into electric vehicles would drastically reduce its need for credits in 2021, and render it independent in 2022. The merger is accelerating the shift of Fiat Chrysler models to EVs, since PSA specializes in electrified drivetrains and platforms.

It appears that Tesla will recoup part of the lost revenue from Fiat Chrysler from Honda, which need the credits and recently joined the pool. The new deal reportedly calls for Honda to pay Tesla around $100 million annually.

Tesla could get a boost if the Biden Administration increases the regulatory credits championed under Obama-Biden. The Trump regime curbed those credits, but the surge from the E.U. overwhelmed the slowdown in the U.S., enabling Tesla to multiply its overall regulatory sales, and this year, turn a profit. More U.S. federal credits would help, but once again, Tesla doesn't expect the category to be a significant contributor after the next few quarters.

Tesla will soon need to do what it's not doing now, generate earnings from cars and batteries. And those profits must prove to investors that Tesla is indeed the wonder that can go from zero to sixty faster than any vehicle in history.

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